Blogs from an Executive MBA: Make good decisions using decision trees

We Are All Wonder Women Co-founder Eugenie is currently studying for an Executive MBA at the University of Cambridge. This is one is a series of blogs she is writing giving insight into some of her learning from the course which she hopes will help other Wonder Women at work.

​​I’ve recently been introduced to decision trees and they are a revelation! A decision tree is a simple way to evaluate your options through incorporating information on probabilities and outcomes.

A decision tree is a decision support tool that uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource costs, and utility. 

I created a rough decision tree below. The decision here is an investment decision between three projects, Project A, Project B, and Project C. Project A has a 90% chance of success and a payoff of 100. Project B has a 70% chance of success and a payoff of 200. Project C has a 50% chance of success and a payoff of 150. I’ve used Silver Decisions software to create it and it automatically calculates which decision is the one to go for, considering probability and payoff. In this instance, it suggests to go for Project B - see the green lines. It’s a relatively simple approach but incredibly helpful when trying to weigh up different options. 

I’m a trained scientist and experienced project manager but I haven’t ever really considered combining them! So when Management Science was one of the courses on the Executive MBA - I was surprised it was even a subject. Turns out it is. And it’s super interesting and useful. By applying some science, statistics, and common sense - we can make better decisions, run better projects, and have more impact. I’ll blog more about Management Science as the course progresses because I know it can help us all.

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